MyDD :: Who will get more delegates today?

Who will get more delegates today?

by vermontprog, Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:05:36 AM EST

What's the big story today? Hillary's expected big win in WV or who garners the most delegates?

So far today it's Obama +5, Hillary -1. Will Hillary make this and whatever other gains Obama makes today up in WV? What will the MSM push as the big story: Hillary's big win or Obama's increasing margin?

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, West Virginia Primary (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

They both win (2.00 / 2)

Clinton will get the dignity of a strong win to encourage her donors in helping her pay her campaign debt, and Obama gets to continue being the presumptive nominee.

The big loser is McCain, who has not benefitted from the increased exposure of an extended primary.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:08:55 AM EST

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

I wonder if the Obama campaign was waiting on a flood of superdelegates until today.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:14:54 AM EST

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

I honestly would be surprised if they release a whole bunch today. 5-10 tops. If they do more I think that would be a mistake.

_____________
PUMA: Perverse Undemocratic McCain Adherents

by lizardbox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:16:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Tomorrow is when we'll see some major supers and/or endorsers.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:18:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Ahh, indeed. Good point.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:19:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Would be obnoxious actually, would define spoil sport (I'm an Obama supporter). I think just the continuing trickle but this is her day today.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:20:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This isn't some award they're handing out... (none / 0)

They're running for President! You'd have an excellent point if they were giving Hillary an award for outstanding achievement on the campaign trail. But c'mon. She was expecting great things on super Tuesday as well, was Obama a spoil sport then?

It's funny how if Obama tries hard he's a spoil sport, if he doesn't and goes easy on her he's arrogant.

by froggyman on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:21:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

I wonder if the Obama campaign has been managing the release of SD declarations in order to provide an ongoing narrative of gain -- like the way a wall of slow moving lava inexorably devours everything in its path.

If he had gotten an avalanche of SDs it would have been a big story for a few cycles and then the question would have become, "Why has his momentum stopped?"

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

I think we should expect the Obama SD rollout to continue through next Wednesday similar to what we've seen the last week. In the last week he got 28 and Clinton got 4. Three of Obama's were defections from Clinton so her net gain was 1.

28 to 1

Expect to see that through Oregon/Kentucky when he passes half the pledged delegates, and then expect quite a few more.

This deliberate rollout is keep Obama's gains in the media, every day.

by PatrickBradish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (2.00 / 1)

Poblano, who is on a predictive roll lately predicts Hillary picking up approx 105,000 popular votes and 12 delegates to Obama's 6 for a net gain of six for Hillary. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com )

Obama has picked-up four Supers today and one switched pledged already making WV a wash. This assumes Problano's numbers hold up.

The 105,000 popular vote will probably get negated in Oregon.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM EST

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Pablano is friggn' awesome. Have to check out his Obama v. McCain GE analysis? I stayed up half the night messing with his spreadsheet. Very cool.

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

kentucky? (none / 0)

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:53:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

I picked Obama would get 5 supers today, and my husband picked he would get 6 supers. Looks like he won. Darn! LOL.

by Spanky on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:29:47 AM EST

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Don't pay your husband just yet. Predictions have any funny habit of not holding up ;)

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:34:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

Today Clinton will probably get more than Obama, via both WV and superdelegates. But of course since Wednesday, Obama has picked up considerably more than Clinton.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:54:22 AM EST

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

As I said in a previous post I think today will be a wash.

Hillary gets 12 delegates while Obama gets 6 from WV. This is a net gain of 6 from WV for Hillary.

Now take into consideration Obama has already gotten 4 Supers today plus one switched pledged delegate. This brings it to 5 appiece. The delegate spread remains the same.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who will get more delegates today? (none / 0)

There are 28 delegates in WV. Expect Clinton to get as many as 20 to Obama's 8. But probably it will be 18 to 10, or around there.

Max she can pick up is 10. He's got 29 this week, she has 0. So if the split is 18 to 10, he beats her:

39 to 18 on the week.

(Although Clinton did have 4 endorsements, she also had 3 super and 1 pledged delegate defections, leaving her with a big fat 0 on the week.)

by PatrickBradish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton will get the most, hands down (none / 0)

Obama may pul to within two or three, but Clinton gets the big win and Obama will not step on that.

It's Hillary's day. she deserves it.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:05:19 PM EST

Diarist's tags don't jive with content. (none / 0)

Story attempts to be even-handed. The tag(s) indicates it's all about Obama. Calling Dr. Freud? Perhaps diarist should revise their tags, huh?

by bobswern on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:25 PM EST

any principle?from obama? (none / 0)

Jack Johnson, a black clinton pledged delegate switches to clinton.

I use "black" and "clinton" because I think were they a "white" "obama" pledged delegate switching to clinton it would be a big story and a big problem.

But once again, the rules change.

If clinton gets obma pledged delegates=bad
if obama gets clinton pledged delegates=no news

by yellowdem1129 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:41:19 PM EST

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